Overview: Monthly, Q3, And Annual Sales Records Set In September!

Well, September was certainly a month of milestones for the Georgian Triangle market . . .

The month’s sales of $94,340,667 were up 18% from last September’s record, as well as up 39% from September 2014. And as Graph 1 shows, Q3’s sales of $311,472,326 – while slightly less than Q2’s all-time quarterly record – were up 31% from 2015’s prior Q3 record, and also up 50% from 2014. Lastly, 2016’s YTD sales of $811,744,436 surpassed 2015’s previous annual record of $804,882,436, thus keeping the regional market on track for its first $1 Billion year!

Regarding units, as Graph 2 shows Q3’s record 809 were up 14% from 2015 while September’s 243 were down 2% from last year’s record. However, September still had its share of multiple and overprice offer situations, partly due to new listings being down 26% from one year ago.


Regarding the average sales price, the Georgian Triangle’s year-to-date figure of $371,168 is up a very happy 10% from September of last year. These numbers all indicate that the regional demand for listings still GREATLY exceeds the supply.


The Market In Detail

As Table 1 shows, 2016’s volume and unit sales translate directly into the main market metrics.

YTD sales are up from 2015 in all price ranges except the $100K-$299K range, where they are down 1%. The entire $300K+ range is up 39%, with particularly big gains of 35%, 48%, 50% and 130% in the $300K-$499K, $500K-$799K, $800K-$999K and $1.5M+ ranges respectively. Even the under $100K range – which is usually down with each passing year – is up 16% from 2015.

Regarding the demand for new listings: September’s, Q3’s and 2016’s sales-to-listings ratios of 83%, 87% and 66% respectively are all way up from 2015. At the same time, September’s, Q3’s and 2016’s expired listings are down 48%, 40% and 36% respectively. Together with 2016’s record sales, this combination of higher sales-to-listing ratios and fewer expired listings also indicates a very big demand for new listings.


As Graphs 3 and 4 show, 2016’s year-to-date dollar and unit sales are way up from that of 2015 and 2014. Dollar sales of $811,744,436 are up 30% and 59% from 2015 and 2014 respectively, while unit sales of 2,187 are up 18% and 37% respectively.



Looking at Graphs 5 and 6, while September’s sales were the lowest they’ve been since March, volume was still above 2015’s prior record, with units slightly under. To put that in perspective, bear in mind that every month of 2015 was a record breaker in terms of volume and unit sales.


A Few More Numbers To Fill In The Picture

September’s metrics also translate into the details of residential home sales by community (Graph 7) and property type (Graph 8). 2016’s residential units sales are up 18% overall from 2015, with the gains mainly due to high-volume Wasaga Beach’s 25% increase. In addition, Grey Highlands (up 28%), Clearview (up 22%), The Blue Mts. (up 12%), Collingwood (up 11%) and Meaford (up 10%) are well ahead of their 2015 sales pace. Lastly, the region’s single-family home, condo and vacant land sales for 2016 are up 16%, 19% and 34% respectively from 2015.


 The Takeaway

The Georgian Triangle’s real estate market is still in full flight, with September being the area’s 30th consecutive record sales month. Q3’s sales topped $311 Million and 2016’s YTD sales topped $811 Million – more than all of 2015, and we still have three months left! This means that unless something unforeseen happens, regional MLS sales should pass the $1 Billion mark for the very first time in December, or even late November. Not too shabby, given that just a few years ago the market struggled to get to $500 Million for the entire year.

And so, the atypical combination of record sales, rising prices and fewer homes on the market remains the order of the day. That said, if you’ve considered putting your home on the market it goes without saying that now is a great time to do it. There’s a big demand for listings and your chances of getting a very good price in a timely manner are excellent.

As to whether 2016’s record sales will be sustained throughout the year as more and more people discover and take advantage of the Georgian Triangle’s four-season lifestyle and great value, only time will tell. Please stay tuned as I regularly provide Georgian Triangle Market Reports in order to help you make better-informed, real estate decisions.