Overview: Record Sales Continue Despite A Shortage Of Listings

Throughout our 2015 Monthly Reports we drew attention to the unprecedented pattern of record-setting sales despite there being far fewer homes on the market than usual. Well, not only has that pattern continued so far into 2016, but it has become even more pronounced.

As Graph 1 shows, 2016’s year-to-date sales volume of $108,991,643 is up 30.2% over last year’s previous record pace, and up a huge 77.5% over 2014. And as Graph 2 shows, this year’s sales units of 288 are up 25.8% over 2015’s previous February record, and up 50.8% over 2014. Moreover, 2016’s sales came in spite of there being 15.3% fewer new homes on the market year-to-date than at the same time last year, and 27.3% fewer than in 2014!


So while it’s still early in 2016 we are nonetheless compelled to say that so far the demand for listings GREATLY exceeds the supply in the Georgian Triangle as a whole – even more so than in 2015, a year in which we saw an unfulfilled demand for listings from beginning to end.


The Market In Detail

Table 1 (below) shows 2016’s record pace is generally reflected in all of the market’s sales performance details.

February’s dollar sales of $67,978,800 and unit sales of 182 were up a staggering 55.5% and 44.4% respectively over last February’s previous records. Again, this robust sales activity came in spite of there being 13.6% fewer new listings on the market this February than last!

With respect to unit sales activity in different price ranges, 2016 is either up significantly or equal to 2015 in all ranges except the less-than-$100K range, no doubt partly because fewer and fewer homes in the area are listing at less than $100K each year. 2016 has enjoyed big unit sale gains in the high-volume $100K-$299K and $300K-$499K ranges (up 14.7% and 65.6% respectively), as well as the $800K-$999K and $1M-$1.499M ranges (up 133% and 20%). Lastly, the 2016 average sales price is up a relatively modest 3.5% over that of this time last year.



Taking a look now at Graphs 3 and 4, we can see just what kind of a spike this February’s sales volume and units had over last February’s (which, as noted, were the previous records).



A Few More Numbers To Fill In The Picture

February’s main market metrics generally translate into the details of Single-Family Home Sales (Graph 5), and Sales by Property Type (Graph 6). Regarding single-family homes, 2016’s year-to-date sales are up 15.4% from 2015. Most of the gains, however, are due to the 56.9% increase in high-volume Wasaga Beach. Clearview and Collingwood are also up so far over last year, while The Blue Mountains, Meaford and Grey Highlands are currently down. Additionally, 2016’s condo sales are up slightly (3.4%) from 2015, while vacant land sales are up 56.3%.

The Takeaway

Regular readers of our Reports must by now be more or less able to predict our conclusions about the Georgian Triangle real estate situation, as these conclusions have generally been the same since the onset of the extraordinary market we have enjoyed since the last half of 2014.

The bottom line is that it’s a fantastic time to be a home seller in the Georgian Triangle. Generally, prices are up nicely from 2014 and there is less competition among sellers, given that the 2015 listing inventory was down every month from 2014, and in 2016 is down another 15.3% from 2015. Similarly, in 2015 expired listings were down 30.1% from 2014, and in 2016 they are currently down yet another 43.2% from this time last year. Indeed, according to our long-time REALTORS® these numbers are completely unprecedented in the region going back to the late 1980’s! Lastly, 2015 gave us 12 consecutive, record sales months, and now January and February of 2016 have set new high water marks, with February sales dollars and units up a phenomenal 55.5% and 44.4% over last year respectively. So buyers are certainly buying.

Again, the question is: how long can this unprecendented sellers’ market last? As well, with the sales-to-listing ratio currently up a full 18% over last year, we must also ask: Are we heading towards the same number of multiple offer and overprice offer situations that characterized last spring’s market? Only time will tell. Still, it seems safe to say that if you’ve considered selling your home your chances of getting a good price in a timely manner are excellent. 

Source: Locations North Market Reports