October 2015: Overview: Yet Another Record-Breaking Month . . .

Well, the Georgian Triangle real estate market has done it again. The area’s best October sales month ever yielded an MLS dollar volume of $78,520,868, up 8.9% over 2014’s previous record of $72,520,868. And as has been the case throughout 2015, these record numbers came despite there being far fewer homes on the market.

In fact, as Graph 1 shows, October’s sales-to-listings ratio was 78.7% which, according to longtime Locations North agents, is basically unprecedented going back to the late 1980’s in the Georgian Triangle, a region where the year-in-year-out, annual average is 30%-40%.


All this compels us to say, once again, that the demand for listings, as it has been throughout 2015, still greatly exceeds supply in the Georgian Triangle as a whole.

But there’s more. As Graph 2 shows, 2015’s sales volume through October, at $704,235,513, is not only up 20.8% over the previous record set last year, but it’s just $1,528,575 short of the entire, record-breaking 2014 sales year. So the area’s all-time annual sales record will have already been broken by the time you read this. And just to add a bit more perspective, 2015’s January-to-October sales are up 37.2% over 2013, which was considered an excellent year.

Still, it must be noted that October’s monthly sales gain of 8.9% over October 2014 is far less than the gains of every other month this year over last, which range from 21.7% to 42.4%.


The Market In Detail

That said, as Table 1 shows, 2015’s record-breaking dollar figures are reflected in the unit sale details which, at 2090, are up 15% over 2014’s unit sales of 1817 despite the year-to-date listings total of 3957 being down 15.8% from 2014’s 4689. These numbers yield an incredible, sales-to-listings ratio of 53% for 2015, up from the more usual 38.8% of 2014. As well, for the first time this year the unit sales in all price ranges are up over 2014, except for the $1.5M-and-up range. 2015’s increases have been particularly good in the $300K – $1.499M range, where they’re up a staggering 33.1% over 2014’s previous record clip.


Taking a look now at the month-to-month sales volume and unit details, as Graphs 3 and 4 show 2015’s record-breaking pace has exceeded 2014’s previous record pace every month.


Lastly, having already noted how 2015’s unit sales-to-listings ratio is 36.6% greater than 2014’s we would like to draw attention to how the two years’ sales-to-expired-listings ratios compare.


As you can see in Graph 5, 2014’s sales are slightly less than its expired listings, with the sales-to-expired-listings ratio coming in at 93.5%. However, as Graph 6 shows, 2015’s sales are much higher than its expired listings, with the sales-to-expired-listings ratio actually at 153.4%! Such a market situation – where 53.4% more listings have sold than have expired – is again totally unprecedented since at least the late 1980’s according to Locations North’s long-time agents.

So, what to make of it?

Well, as we’ve said throughout 2015, it’s a wonderful time to be a home seller in the Georgian Triangle. In general, prices have been up nicely from 2014, although the average gains have declined slightly since the late spring. There is less competition among sellers, given that the 2015 listing inventory has been down every month from 2014 and is down 15.8% year-to-date. Expired listings are down 29.9%. And the fact that we’ve had one record-breaking month after another, with unit sales up 15% and dollar sales up 20.8%, means buyers are definitely buying.

How long will this market last? Hard to say, given all the macro- and microeconomic factors. As well as consulting the crystal ball last month we tried invoking the ghost of Yogi Berra and even that didn’t yield an answer.

Again, it seems safe to say though that if you’ve considered selling your home your current chances of getting a good price in a timely manner are excellent. 

A Few More Numbers To Fill In The Picture

As they have throughout 2015, October’s main market metrics translate directly into nearly all the details of Single-Family Home Sales (Graph 7), and Sales by Property Type (Graph 8).

Regarding single-family homes, 2015’s year-to-date numbers are up 12% from 2014. Each community is up except Clearview (down 1.4%) and Grey Highlands (down 22.6%), while highvolume Wasaga Beach (up 32.6%) has been responsible for most of the overall gains.

Lastly, 2015’s condo sales are up 9.7% over 2014’s, while vacant land sales are up 20.1%.


Again, as to whether 2015’s sales numbers will be sustained throughout the year as more and more people discover and take advantage of the Georgian Triangle’s four-season lifestyle and great value, we’ll have to see.